China Net Finance July 10 (Reporter Liang Wei) Shen Wan Hongyuan 2019 Summer Strategy Meeting was held in Guiyang today. Shen Wan Hongyuan Securities analyst Qin Tai said at the meeting that the situation of large destocking in the first quarter of this year may be reversed, providing a certain buffer for the next few quarters. Specifically, the investment shows that the real estate is not weak, the infrastructure is slightly improved, and the manufacturing industry is at the bottom, but the actual fixed investment growth rate is still strong after deducting the price; the export growth rate has declined but the surplus can still be supported; the household consumption is expected to decrease. The tax policy has continued to improve. In terms of inflation, many factors will continue to change, and CPI will not affect monetary policy. Therefore, the economy will remain relatively optimistic in the second half of the year.
As for policy, Qin Tai said that looking back at global history, developed economies have achieved sustained and steady economic growth with continuous manufacturing upgrades, while some major emerging market countries have slowed down because of “premature industrialization”. The pace of catching up even tends to stagnate. However, the premise of continuous upgrading of the manufacturing industry is the need for sustained growth, rather than the promotion of monetary leverage. In 1994-08, China's economy was small, relying on external demand to achieve continuous upgrading of the manufacturing industry. However, China's incremental demand contribution ranks first in the world, and the policy orientation shifts from "external demand pull" to "expanding domestic demand + stable external demand."