申万宏源秦泰:对下半年经济持相对乐观态度

作者:懒人 发布时间:

China Net Finance July 10 (Reporter Liang Wei) Shen Wan Hongyuan 2019 Summer Strategy Meeting was held in Guiyang today. Shen Wan Hongyuan Securities analyst Qin Tai said at the meeting that the situation of large destocking in the first quarter of this year may be reversed, providing a certain buffer for the next few quarters. Specifically, the investment shows that the real estate is not weak, the infrastructure is slightly improved, and the manufacturing industry is at the bottom, but the actual fixed investment growth rate is still strong after deducting the price; the export growth rate has declined but the surplus can still be supported; the household consumption is expected to decrease. The tax policy has continued to improve. In terms of inflation, many factors will continue to change, and CPI will not affect monetary policy. Therefore, the economy will remain relatively optimistic in the second half of the year.

As for policy, Qin Tai said that looking back at global history, developed economies have achieved sustained and steady economic growth with continuous manufacturing upgrades, while some major emerging market countries have slowed down because of “premature industrialization”. The pace of catching up even tends to stagnate. However, the premise of continuous upgrading of the manufacturing industry is the need for sustained growth, rather than the promotion of monetary leverage. In 1994-08, China's economy was small, relying on external demand to achieve continuous upgrading of the manufacturing industry. However, China's incremental demand contribution ranks first in the world, and the policy orientation shifts from "external demand pull" to "expanding domestic demand + stable external demand."

xx秦泰还表示,中国目前的货币政策正在重组:退出和长期中立。中国的货币政策经历了由外部需求驱动的“盈余——货币——制造业投资——盈余”的最佳阶段。它还经历了“松散的——房地产——信贷扩张——投资”的杠杆化过程。房地产需求增长放缓,信贷传导桥梁减弱,投资需求减弱,货币传导效率减弱。自18H2以来,货币操作并未紧张,但受需求增长放缓的影响,信贷利润率有所改善,但幅度有限。展望未来,“去周期化”,趋向于中立或成为长期特征,我们不应期待“大水泛滥”。